Case Study: Intelligence
The Client was a luxury hotel resort due to accommodate a delegation that attracted unwelcome protest action. The delegates represented an unpopular industry and were the subject of a continuous adverse social media campaign. They had attracted regular protest action over a period of years. Previous actions had taken the form of demonstrations and had resulted in property damage and arrests. Recent social media activity had threatened violent action at the right opportunity. The Client wanted us to assess the probability and scale of protest action against the delegates at its location.
We researched the issues from the delegates and the protesters perspectives to obtain insight. We were then able to identify relevant pressure groups and follow their broadcasts in the lead up to the delegates' stay. Additionally, we had representatives attend meetings and social events connected to the pressure groups. This allowed us to recognize key decision-makers and gauge further the intended protest actions. Open Source Intelligence research allied to information gained in previous investigations allowed us to identify the key activists. This then allowed us to more accurately predict the likelihood and type of intended action, based on previous activity. We also spoke to contacts on the fringes of the pressure groups to gain further insight.
We produced a Risk Matrix based on Likelihood v. Impact so that the Client could more accurately gauge the risk involved. This allowed them to make a clear decision on how much risk to accept, and with our help draw up a detailed contingency plan in the event of any protest action. We also produced a photographic montage of likely agitators at any protest, based on previous activity. This would have been distributed to key staff in the immediate build-up to the event, to try and identify potential reconnaissance activity by the agitators.
In this case the delegates did not attend the hotel due to unconnected events. However, the methodology was proven and reassurance and understanding was given to the Client for future planning purposes.